Ever played hoops with somebody who wouldn't stop shooting at every chance – even though he was missing more shots than the CDC during flu season? That affliction isn't limited to your lunchtime pickup game at the local Y. Plenty of NBA players suffer from the same problem, putting a serious damper on their teams' offensive productivity.
We know this to be true merely by observing Antoine Walker or the post-injury Chris Webber , for example. When it comes to shooting, each has become infamous for emphasizing quantity rather than quality. But are they the NBA's two worst offenders, or are some other players gunning just as egregiously? And if so, how much are these players costing their teams with all those missed shots? To figure this out, we need a way to measure which players are doing the most damage to their teams with their wayward shooting. This measure should reflect two attributes: 1) shooting badly and 2) shooting frequently. First, we need to define what we mean by "shooting badly." In this case, we're not just referring to a low shooting percentage. After all, some players make enough 3-pointers or get to the line often enough that they're much more effective than their shooting percentages suggest. A few, such as Chauncey Billups , manage to do both, making them much better than their percentage (in this case 42.8) would lead us to believe. |
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Thus, rather than using a player's nominal shooting percentage, the way to measure shooting effectiveness is to use what I call a player's True Shooting Percentage (TS%) – adjusted for 3-pointers and free throws. That way, we can properly measure players who get an extra point for their long jumpers or extra free throws from their drives to the basket.
The formula for TS% is a little different from field-goal percentage, so let's walk through it (or run if you're math-phobic; meet us at the next paragraph). Let's start with the numerator, where instead of field goals we use a player's total points. In the denominator, we use a player's total shots – including field-goal attempts and free-throw attempts. As I discussed last week, a free-throw attempt is worth about 0.44 field-goal attempts, so we need to multiply the free-throw tries by 0.44. Finally, we need to take the end result and divide by two to give us a TS% for each player.
The equation looks like this: TS% = Points / ((FGA + (0.44 x FTA)) x 2) OK, now that we have an equation, who are the league's biggest masons? Using this measure, the worst shooter is George Lynch of the Hornets , who has a True Shooting Percentage of 41.1. You might say that's Truly Awful. For some perspective on that number, the league average in True Shooting is 52.8, compared with the league field-goal percentage of 44.3. So our standards need to shift nearly 10 points higher when we look at TS%. If we adjust Lynch's True Shooting Percentage accordingly (8.5 points), it's 32.6. That's uglier than Mehmet Okur 's mullet.
With that caveat, take a look at the rest of the bottom 10 in True Shooting (see chart).
Of course, TS% is only half of the story. While all 10 players have been about as accurate as a North Korean press release, they can still minimize the damage by focusing on other areas. Dale Davis, for instance, takes the floor mainly to rebound and defend in the paint and averages only three field-goal attempts per game. Hence, even though his TS% is low, he's not napalming the offense by insisting on shooting every trip down court.
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To determine the players who are actively harming their team's offense requires a second calculation, using a stat that I call Brick Index. It measures, on a per-40-minute basis, how many points a player costs his team with his shooting. Start with the difference between a player's TS% and the league average of 52.8. Then multiply that result by his "shot attempts" – that is, field-goal attempts plus free-throw attempts times 0.44. The result is how many points the player's shooting cost (or benefited) the team. However, to accurately compare apples to apples, we then need to divide that number by his minutes played and multiply that result by 40:
Brick Index = ((52.8 - TS%) x (FGA + (FTA x 0.44))) / (Min/40) Finally, we need to raise the bar on minutes played for our list to have much meaning. I used a 500-minute cutoff in the first chart, but if we use that list here, we're going to end up with a bunch of Junior Harrington s and Willie Green s – players who already have lost their playing time because of their slavish devotion to shooting. Instead, let's raise the minimum to 1,000 minutes. This way, we're looking at players who are playing significant minutes despite the damage their shots are inflicting. Before we see the top 10, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 99 percent of you expect to see Walker at the top. Well, you're close: He's second. But another player's rampant gunning has been even more noxious than Walker's (see chart). Keith Bogans . Who knew? But the numbers don't lie: Bogans is out-bricking Walker. He averages 15 field-goal attempts per 40 minutes, an amazing total considering he's shooting 36.1. He also is following Walker's lead by launching nearly two 3-pointers a game despite paltry 26.7 accuracy. By comparison, 'Toine is money at 41.6 overall and 31.4 from downtown. |
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Like most players with tunnel vision, Bogans has fallen in love with his jump shot. The stat mavens at 82games.com report that 69 percent of Bogans' shot attempts are jumpers, which is insane considering how rarely his jumper finds the net (just 32 percent, including a ghastly 34.5 on two-point jumpers).
Of course, maybe we shouldn't be so quick to criticize Bogans. You'll notice that he's not the only Bobcats player making the list – teammates Emeka Okafor and Melvin Ely also are near the top. There's a reason for this – somebody on that team has to shoot the ball, and without an A-list offensive player to run plays through, other players have to take on roles that are far beyond their abilities. You could make the same defense for Walker, who was forced to be Team Drobnjak's (aka the Hawks ') go-to guy before being paroled to Boston last week.
But what's Webber's excuse? Playing for one of the best offensive teams in basketball, Webber led the Kings in field-goal attempts despite being remarkably less accurate than nearly all of his teammates. Since I've already ranted on the Webber trade, I'll stop here -- suffice it to say that if Webber were more content to be a great passer, his team would be more appreciative.
The other surprises on the list are the two Minnesotans, Troy Hudson and Eddie Griffin . Hudson actually spent some time on the bench earlier this year because Flip Saunders was so disgusted with his shoot-first approach. Unfortunately, injuries to Sam Cassell forced Hudson back into the lineup. Similarly, Griffin started the year shooting well from beyond the 3-point line, but that only encouraged him to launch ever more brazenly. Minnesota manages to have a good offense despite those two – it's incredible what Kevin Garnett can do for a team – but the Timberwolves would be near the top if Hudson and Griffin gave their shooting arms a rest once in a while.
| The worst offenders set their clubs back about two points a game, which will cost a team about five victories over the course of a season. |
Sadly, this type of player seems inclined to remember only his rare successes and to gloss over his frequent failures. That's where a statistical tool such as Brick Index can come in handy, shining a harsh light on those who suffer from selective memories. It demonstrates that the cost to their teams is significant, too. The worst offenders set their clubs back about two points a game, which will cost a team about five victories over the course of a season.
Of course, the Brick Index's tenets hold water at any level, not just the pros. So if a guy on your pickup team won't stop firing up bricks, you'll have an easy way to vent your anger. Just start calling him "Bogans."